Tea Party Fantasy Date
Posted on December 15, 2011
Rush Limbaugh said today that any Republican in the field, other than Ron Paul, could beat Barack Obama today.That is not true, and Rush should know it.
Rush does not have a particularly good track record. Remember, he believed that Christine O’Donnell could be Chris Coons, that Sharron Angle could beat Harry Reid, that Joe Miller could beat whoever the Democrat was in Alaska and that Ken Buch could beat whoever was running for the Senate in Colorado.
He was wrong then and he is wrong now.
Michele Bachmann cannot beat Barack Obama. Rick Santorum cannot beat Barack Obama (no matter how much I like him). Hermann Cain could not beat Barack Obama.
Rick Perry cannot beat Barack Obama. I know it might be tempting for conservatives to believe that Perry could magically come back and beat the President, but there is no evidence that he would do any better in the debates than he has already. Obama would wipe him out.
Newt Gingrich will not be able to beat Barack Obama. As much as we might wish it to be true, it will not happen. Newt will say something controversial, and he will have the same approval ratings that he had when he was Speaker. Those approval ratings were terrible.
Jon Huntsman could beat Barack Obama, but he probably isn’t going to survive the primary process. Mitt Romney probably will survive the primary process and he has the best chance of beating Obama, but under no circumstances is that a sure thing.
Obama is beatable, but it won’t be easy. He has some structural weakness (working class whites have largely turned against him), but he has some structural strengths (non-whites still like him and can’t stand Republicans, and they are growing part of the population).
The economy seems to be improving quickly, and that too could help Obama.
Unless somebody else jumps in, right now the GOP has only two options that could possibly win: Huntsman and Romney. The Republican base seems to dislike both of them rather intensely, which must give the President’s men some hope.
Republicans shouldn’t assume that they have this election in the bag. They don’t. They have to nominate somebody who actually can beat Obama and not just any Tea Party fantasy date.