If Biden Runs
Posted on August 3, 2015
"Biden 2013" by David Lienemann - White House (V011013DL-0556). Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons.
I tweeted my prediction a couple of weeks ago.
Joe Biden vs. Jeb Bush, with Bush winning.
I added another tweet after that. It could be Kasich vs. Biden.
In either event, I think Joe Biden will run for President.
And I think he will beat Hillary in a primary.
He is a better politician than Clinton. Where she is stiff, he is natural. Where she is fake, he is authentic. Where she is cold, he is warm.
He has a better narrative. The tragic death of his son only adds to his story of overcoming adversity to serve the American people.
What’s Hillary’s narrative, other than being a Grandma? She married a guy who became President, she screwed up a health care initiative when First Lady, she parlayed that to become Senator for a state she didn’t live in, she reset the button with Vladimir Putin, she made a boatload of money giving speeches and selling books, and she stonewalls the media every chance she gets.
That’s not much of a narrative.
Biden will unambiguously run as Obama’s third term. Hillary will continuously try to distance herself from this President, who she doesn’t much like and doesn’t much trust.
Obama and Biden are blood brothers. Their families are close, made closer after Beau’s death. Biden’s wife Jill and Obama’s wife Michelle are very close.
Bill Clinton and Barack Obama can’t stand each other, truth be told. How could they, after Clinton called the President a “fairy tale” when he was running for the White House.
It all comes down to ideology. Clinton’s ideology is mercantilism. Obama is a socialist. Clinton believes that when he does well, the whole country does well. Obama likes to spread the wealth out a bit.
Clinton won success as basically a moderate Republican. Obama hates Republicans (you can see the disdain with which he deals with the GOP Congress).
Joe Biden is a real Irish liberal. He was the one who first came out for gay marriage. Most Irish Catholics are socially conservative. But there are Irish Catholics out there who are liberal in everything. Biden is one of those guys.
Biden is much more in line with the populism of the Democratic Party. Clinton is ambiguous.
Biden is the Vice President and usually that is the office that propels you to the White House.
Secretary of State used to be a BFD, back in the early 19th Century. But we haven’t had somebody from that office become President in the Twentieth Century.
If Biden enters the race, he would be the favorite. I think Obama would endorse him or at least stay on the sidelines. I don’t know why he wouldn’t run.